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Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030

March 4, 2011

How will the environment for the global mining and metals sector look in 2030?

Source: World Economic Forum, February 2010

Scenario Design:

  • The World Economic Forum described 3 plausible scenarios of the development of the industry up to 2030 with the objective of challenging the mental frameworks of regulators and people in the industry.
  • The scenarios build on the certainty of population growth and overall increasing demand for commodities.
  • The scenarios diverge in the area of 4 critical uncertain developments: geo-economic; geopolitical; economic; and environmental.

Scenario Outcomes:

  • The Green Trade Alliance scenario sees a world divided between the ‘green’ and ‘the rest’. Global trade is compromised by new environmental standards. Sustainability is a key issue for mining companies.
  • The Rebased Globalism scenario sees high growth in a Multipolar World, in which regulation is mainly local. Stakeholders management is a key issue for the mining industry, in which resources are scarce.
  • The Resource Security scenario sees a breakdown of globalism as governments try to secure access to raw materials. Limited trade and substitution of industrial inputs leads to low growth for the mining industry. Government relations are the most important asset in the industry.

©2011 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

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