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Mining Industry Scenarios 2011-2014

March 11, 2011

How could the mining industry develop in the period 2011 to 2014?

The mining industry is facing uncertain times. In response to the World Economic Forum’s ‘Mining & Metals scenarios to 2030’ I developed two short term scenarios for the mining industry. Both scenarios describe a plausible, consistent, potential development of the industry in the next 3 years:

 

Scenarios:

  • In Red Wave, China’s government manages to sustain demand growth, resulting in high commodity prices. At the same time China invests heavily all around the world, forcing other miners to focus on organic growth.
  • In Countercurrent, revaluation of the renminbi and high interest rates in China lead to lower commodity demand. Prices decrease across the board. Miners struggle to maintain positive margins. New project development becomes of secondary importance.

Full transcript of the video can be downloaded here

©2011 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

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  1. March 11, 2011 at 11:36 pm

    Brilliant video Wilfred – nice work!
    I agree with your two scenarios, but wouldn’t even attempt to say which is more likely. There are so many factors yet to play out that can have an impact – increased regulation and restriction on mining in developed countries, the opening up of incredible amounts of resources in Africa, South America and Mongolia, and of course the growth of a myriad of other nations besides China. All these are longer term impacts, but I think the way they proceed in the next three years will still have an impact. Not to mention the uncertainty thrown into the mix by remaining economic concerns in Europe, and the potential impacts of natural disasters.
    But the numbers on China are just staggering (as you’ve discussed before). Even if their economy and quality of life only grows slightly over the coming decade, the sheer number of people equates to massive resource consumption.
    Totally agree with your closing statement – “Change IS the only constant”!

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