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Posts Tagged ‘Anglo American’

Mining Week 34/’12: Lonmin labor dispute turns deadly

August 18, 2012 Comments off

Top Stories of the Week:

  • Fights between police and striking Lonmin workers results in over 40 deaths
    • Over 40 miners and several police officers were killed in clashes with the police at Lonmin’s Marikana mine in South Africa, where workers had been on strike for about a week demanding wage increases.
    • Competing trade unions trying to ‘control’ the workforce are mentioned as part of the reason the conflicts turned into strikes and violence.
    • On August 16th, in the midst of the developments around the violence in South Africa, Lonmin’s CEO was diagnosed with serious illness and is temporarily replaced by the chairman of the board.
    • Sources: Lonmin press release; Mining Weekly; Wall Street Journal
  • Anglo American finalizes acquisition of 40% stake in De Beers
    • Anglo American paid $5.1bln for the 40% stake of De Beers previously owned by the Oppenheimer family. The company now owns 85% of the major diamond producer.
    • The deal was announced announced in November of last year; diamond prices have dropped significantly since that announcement.
    • Sources: Anglo press release; Financial Times

Trends & Implications:

  • The global platinum market is facing significant oversupply, keeping prices low and pushing platinum miners into the red. Lonmin is the highest cost producer among the major producers, putting it in a position in which is can’t keep workers satisfied without pay raises while it can not raise wages without making big losses. Anglo Platinum currently controls approx. 40% of global production in mines in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Various other miners have called on Anglo to cut production to make prices rise.
  • The social and political situation in South Africa is causing most international mining companies without strong ties to the country to think twice before investing in the country: high tax rates, active and unpredictable unions, political leaders calling for mine nationalization, and the startup of a ‘national mining company’ result in a very high country risk level.

©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

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Mining M&A – Top 40 Share attractiveness ranking

August 4, 2012 Comments off

Valuations across the mining industry are coming down as a result of low commodity prices and uncertainty about the future of the global economy. Many companies are reviewing investment plans, pressured by investors to return money to shareholders if the project pipeline is short of feasible investment opportunities. Most companies in the industry will be extremely careful with large-scale M&A at this moment, but for some companies with either a lot of cash or a good position to give out more equity the reduced prices could provide opportunities to make a big acquisition. The ranking presented below presents the attractiveness of acquiring any of the Top 40 mining companies.

An acquisition of any of the world’s largest 40 miners will have to be financed to a large extent by raising additional capital from equity holders, as the acquisition price would be too high for most companies to pay cash after taking on more debt. The attractiveness of executing a share deal to acquire a company is split into the current level of share depression (historic performance) and the outlook for the share as given in analyst targets (future performance).

The share depression is represented in the chart and the ranking below by taking the ratio of current share price compared to 52-week high, normalized to the performance of BHP Billiton, the largest company in the group (i.e. share depression of BHP Billiton = 1.0). The 52-week high is used surprisingly often in acquisitions as the price paid, as it is easy to accept for many shareholders of the target company that they will receive the highest price over the past year.

The outlook for shares is given by the ratio of consensus analyst target dividend by current share price. Whatever the historic performance of a share, the outlook ratio shows the expected potential for the share. For these large mining companies the consensus target is typically formed out of at least 10 equity analyst and banker targets. An overall ranking score of share attractiveness is calculated by dividing the outlook ratio by the share depression ratio.

In this initial ranking of attractive targets, using closing share price of August 3rd 2012, the top 5 positions are claimed by ENRC, Ivanhoe, Kinross, Peabody, and Anglo American. Each of these shares has taking a significant beating over the past year. Apart from Anglo they have all dropped about twice as far from their year high share price as BHP Billiton. However, analyst targets for each of the companies are high too, each being expected to gain at least 50% of value in the relatively short term. The combination of a big drop in share price and a promising upside makes the companies attractive for potential buyers. Clearly many more factors play a role in target selection, and politics, synergy potential, and several other factors rule out quick action for most of the top targets in the ranking. However, the chart and ranking below do serve well as a quick scan to see which companies are in the ‘danger zone’ of becoming an acquisition target.


©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

Mining Week 31/’12: Falling prices, falling profits

July 29, 2012 Comments off

Top Stories of the Week:

  • Vale’s profits down on lower prices
    • Vale reported profits below analyst estimates and 60% down versus the same quarter last year. The benchmark price of iron ore has dropped to $120/wmt, at part with the price floor identified by the company last quarter.
    • After the first quarter Vale reported a 45% drop in year on year profits, driven by both volumes and prices
    • Sources: Vale press release; Financial Times
  • Anglo, Teck, Gold miners down on lower prices
    • Lower commodity prices and rising costs resulted in earnings drops of 55%, 65%, and 35% for Anglo, Teck, and Barrick.
    • Anglo announced delay of its flagship development iron ore project in Brazil, Barrick announced large cost overruns for its Pascua Lama project in Argentina, and Teck recently tuned back on a large copper expansion project in Chile. They are all reviewing the balance between project investments and shareholder returns.
    • Sources: FT on Anglo; FT on Teck; WSJ on Barrick
  • Anglo pays $0.6bn for controlling stake in Mozambique coking coal project
    • In a rare move amidst cancellation of development projects across the industry Anglo made the move to buy 59% of the 1.4Bt Revuboe coal project in Mozambique. The project is a JV with Nippon and Posco and is planning to start production of 6-9Mtpa by September 2013.
    • Sources: Financial Times; Anglo press release

Trends & Implications:

  • Dropping prices + increasing costs = review of development. Most non-agricultural commodity price indices have dropped 20-40% over the past year. Where a year ago the focus of most miners was to bring new projects online as fast as possible, attention has shifted to cost containment and ‘disciplined capital investment’. The focus on building projects is stretching capacity of contractors, making capital and operating costs increase rapidly. As a result the projected returns of projects deteriorate, forcing companies to reconsider their portfolio of development plans.

©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

Mining Week 29/’12: Chilean peace talks

July 15, 2012 Comments off

Top Stories of the Week:

  • Anglo American and Codelco extend talks about Sur
    • Anglo American and Codelco agreed to suspend legal action in the lawsuits filed by both parties in the conflict around ownership of the Anglo Sur projects in Chile until August 24 to have more time to try to settle the dispute out of court.
    • Chilean media reported that a potential solution to the dispute might involve minority shareholder Mitsubishi to give up a small stake to enable Mitsui to build up a stake. Anglo sold 49% of the project at a high valuation after Mitsui and Codelco made agreements about a deal based on Codelco’s option to buy into the project.
    • Sources: Financial Times; Wall Street Journal; Anglo American press release
  • Agnelli heads new mining consortium in Brazil
    • Vale’s former CEO Roger Agnelli will head a new mining venture set up by investment bank BTG. Initial capital of the new venture: B&A Mineração.
    • The new company inherits a stake in a potash project in Brazil and a copper project in Chile and will look into further opportunities in Latin America and Africa.
    • Sources: Wall Street Journal; Financial Times
  • Tinkler continues with Whitehaven bid
    • Whitehaven, one of Australia’s largest coal miners with mines in Queensland, received a buyout proposal by its largest shareholder: Nathan Tinkler.
    • Tinkler already owns 21.6% of the shares and proposes to buy the rest of the shares at a 50% premium to take the company off the stock exchange. Total bid amounts to approx. A$5.2 billion.
    • Sources: Financial Times; The Australian

Trends & Implications:

  • The peace talks between Anglo, Codelco, Mitsui and Mitsubishi underline a trend of the growing importance of alliances and multilateral networks in the industry. As mining projects more and more take place in relatively unstable areas of the world an important mining projects require investments so big that it can hardly be carried by a single company, companies need to build upon the strengths and contacts of other companies and find win-win agreements with governments to successfully develop their projects.
  • B&A Mineracao is the 2nd high-profile mining startup in recent years, after Nathan Rothschild started Vallar 2 years ago. The initial success and quick issues of Vallar’s tie-up with Bumi demonstrated three important lessons for these startups that plan to be big soon: Firstly a powerful financier that can chip in multi-billion investments is needed to gain any importance; secondly a combination with existing producers is the only way in which the growth can be quick; and finally effective ownership and governance arrangements around these alliances are crucial to make the new management successful.

©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

Mining News 22/’12: Codelco CEO change; Australia recruits overseas

May 28, 2012 Comments off

Top Stories of the Week:

  • Codelco’s CEO quits
    • Diego Hernandez, Codelco’s CEO, decided to quit prior to the end of his terms for personal reasons. Conflicts around the level of interference by the board in management of the government-controlled company are mentioned as the reason. CFO Thomas Keller will take over as CEO.
    • The change of CEO comes in a critical period for Codelco as it is in a legal battle with Anglo American about the ‘Sur’ project, in which Codelco claims to have the option to buy a larger part than Anglo wants to sell.
    • Sources: Financial Times; Wall Street Journal; Reuters
  • Australia implements law to make hiring immigrant workers easier
    • Australia’s new Enterprise Migration Agreement (EMA) makes it possible to bring in foreign workers on fixed term contracts for projects with an investment of $2bln or higher and a peak workforce of over 1500 employees.
    • The EMA takes a project-wide labor agreement approach, making it possible to have subcontractors bring in people via the overarching project agreement.
    • Sources: Australian government; Wall Street Journal; Financial Times
  • GlenStrata focuses on retention of Xstrata executives
    • As part of the merger deal with Glencore the Xstrata shareholders will get to vote on a $78mln bonus for Mick Davis to stay on for another 3 years. Other executive directors will be offered retention bonuses too.
    • Sources: Financial Times; Reuters;

Trends & Implications:

  • Australia’s EMA will mainly be used for low skilled construction workers. The shortage of highly skilled planning and engineering employees is unlikely to be resolved as those contracts are typically not fixed-term and not project-specific. The Australian government expects it needs to add 89 thousand short-term workers in the next years. Still the unions, which are very powerful in Australia’s resources sector, are complaining about the Agreement, saying that bringing in workers for overseas will hurt the domestic labor market. A key issue in the flexibility of this market is that many workers are available in the East coast region, but most of the work is available in the remote areas on the West coast.
  • As ‘deal-friendly’ investors have built up a share ownership that makes it likely that Xstrata’s shareholders will vote in favor of the merger with Glencore in the currently proposed 2.8x share proportion, the focus of management activity shifts back to regulatory issues and planning for post-merger activities. A key issue in th successful integration of the companies will be to join the corporate cultures of the trader and the miner. The retention efforts will likely go further than just executive leadership, targeting several hundreds of top management. At the same time the company will have to work on retaining the top traders and top management from Glencore’s side.

©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

Mining Week 17/’12: The sense and nonsense of stock prices

April 22, 2012 Comments off

April is traditionally the month in which the major diversified miners present their annual results. BHP Billiton closes its fiscal year in the mid of the calender year, but joins its main competitors in giving an update of its performance in an investor meeting in this month. One of the key objectives of the executives presenting their numbers to an audience that will listen to each of the presentations in the course of a couple of weeks is to make the company look good, or at least better than competitors.

Managing the expectations of investors serves a twofold purpose: in the first place the goal is to make sure the investors know what they are investing in and what the perspectives for the company are – as a result the stock price should reflect the true performance and potential of the company; in the second place the goal is to keep the shareprice high or make it go higher – often referred to ironically as ‘reflecting the true value of the company’.

Why care about stock prices?

  • Market value matters in the first place from a financial point of view. The higher the market price, the easier and cheaper it is to raise debt, giving flexibility to invest.
  • The second important reason to care about the share price is the mergers and acquisitions arena. An undervalued company is an acquisition target, and having a strong share price makes doing paper acquisitions (pay with shares instead of cash) attractive.

Why not care about stock prices?

  • Market value does not matter because an executive should not be driven by short term stock price fluctuations, which are typically mainly the result of market conditions and events the executives do not have a hand or a say in. In the long term good management will lead to a distinct outperformance of competitors, but short term movements are too erratic to say much about management performance.
  • An executive should not be driven by the market price (i.e. the shareholders interest) alone, but should take the interests of other stakeholders (employees, society), which are often not directly or fully included in the share price, in account too.

©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

Mining Week 07/’12: Results time and the Bumi story

February 19, 2012 Comments off

Top Stories of the Week:

  • Friction between Bumi board and Rothschild
    • Conflict arose in the board of Bumi, the Indonesian coal miner with the investor Nathan Rothschild as a large investor after a reverse takeover of the Vallar investment vehicle. After initial conflicts the Indonesian board members planned to remove mr. Rothschild from the board, but he now only appears to have to give up his co-chairmanship. Share price of the company dropped significantly after the news of the conflict.
    • Sources: Financial Times; Wall Street Journal; Bumi’s overview of board members
  • Annual results published without major surprises
    • (Higher prices + higher costs) x lower volumes = lower profits. That was the story of the results releases of the world’s largest miners this week. The impairment taken by Rio Tinto on the Alcan acquisition costs probably was the most significant item, together with the relatively positive outlook given after the negative and uncertain signals given about global demand in the past months.
    • Sources: Rio Tinto results presentation; text; Wall Street Journal on Anglo
  • BHP (58%) and Rio (30%) expand Escondida at $4.5bln cost
    • BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto announced investments of $4.5bln to replace the plant at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine in output, increasing capacity and enabling mining restricted by the current facilities.
    • Sources: BHP Billiton news release; Rio Tinto media release; Reuters

Trends & Implications:

  • February is the month in which most of the world’s largest diversified miners present their annual results (only BHP Billiton runs a different fiscal year). The investor presentations provide interesting reading and give a good idea of the vision for the future of the industry. Below a peak preview with the most insightful slides from the presentations:

©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

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