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Mining Week 03/’12: Record setting iron ore miners & dividend increase

January 22, 2012 1 comment

Top Stories of the Week:

  • BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto deliver record production in Pilbara

    This was another record-breaking year in the Pilbara with both quarterly and full year iron ore production. Record global iron ore shipments of 239 million tonnes in 2011 were below production due to extreme weather conditions experienced in the first half of the year. Despite this, Rio Tinto’s Pilbara ports operated at above annualised capacity rates and shipped record volumes of 61 million tonnes in the fourth quarter and 225 million tonnes for the full year.

    While scheduled maintenance, tie-in activities and the wet season in the Pilbara are expected to affect Western Australia Iron Ore production in the second half of the 2012 financial year, full year production is now forecast to marginally exceed prior guidance of 159 million tonnes per annum.

  • Sources: Rio Tinto press release; BHP Billiton press release; Financial Times
  • Vale increases dividend

    Trends & Implications:

    • Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton continue to build capacity in the Pibara iron ore district. With relatively low mining costs and close proximity to the Asian/Chinese market this iron ore region is the most competitive (and largest) producer in the world. As the output in Pilbara is exceeding expectations and Chinese growth is slowing, exporters in other regions face an uncertain future. The global iron ore market is slowly evolving to a scenario where Brazil and Western Africa supply ore for the European market and the Latin American growth market, and Australia supplies iron ore for Asia.
    • Vale’s increase of dividends fits in the trend of recent dividend increases in the industry and is a clear sign of uncertainty in the boardrooms of many companies: organic investment opportunities and development capacity are limited, share buybacks and cash takeovers would increase leverage and vulnerability, and with the uncertainty about future economic developments many companies decide to give the cash to shareholders in an attempt to keep share price high.

    ©2012 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

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    Gold and copper prices push Barrick to record

    February 18, 2011 1 comment

    “Surging gold and copper prices propelled Barrick Gold to record earnings of almost $900m in the fourth quarter, but the world’s biggest gold producer warned of escalating cost pressures. The Toronto-based company reported lower operating costs last year but Aaron Regent, chief executive, said that inflationary pressures “have become more pronounced” across a broad front, including raw materials, freight and labour. Mr Regent added that demand for these inputs is accelerating as mining projects around the world are brought forward to take advantage of buoyant commodity markets.

    In a partial reversal of its aversion to hedging, Barrick said that it had taken advantage of high spot silver prices and attractive option terms to guarantee prices on 15m ounces of silver, which is equal to 10 per cent of Pascua Lama’s output in the five years from 2013 and 2017. The strategy will ensure prices of $20-$55 an ounce.”

    Source: Financial Times, February 17 2011

    Observations:

    • Barrick took a $4.2bln hit in 2009 to eliminate the hedge book. Net cash inflow in 2010 was $4.8bln, leaving the company with $4bln in cash, of which just over half is planned to be spent on capital expenditure this year.
    • Total cash cost for the production of last year was $457/oz., with Q4 almost $30/oz. higher. Costs are down compared to last year (with low production), but up 32% from 2007 levels.

    Implications:

    • The return to hedging gives a signal that Barrick expects the silver price not to rise further. In the ’80s and ’90s Barrick used an extensive gold price hedging strategy, in which the full production of the next 3 years was continuously hedged. With the falling gold prices in this period this was a profitable strategy. In 2003 the company decided to stop hedging to gain exposure to increasing gold prices. However, the open hedges for many years were very costly as gold price never returned to 2003 levels.
    • The cost increase experience by Barrick is in line with increasing cost figures diversified miners announced this week. Controlling operational costs will return to the priority lists in order to protect margins when commodity prices decrease.

    ©2011 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

    The options of BHP Billiton

    February 2, 2011 Comments off

    “BHP’s cash pile – which in June last year stood at $12.5bn (£7.8bn) – may explain investors’ indifferent reaction to the failure of its $39bn hostile bid for PotashCorp last November, as well as two previous failed deals.

    BHP’s progressive dividend policy suggests that last year’s $4.6bn dividend payments will be exceeded this year, starting with the interim pay-out. Share buy-backs may compensate investors for BHP’s failure to complete the Potash deal or an iron ore tie-up with Rio Tinto.

    The company said on November 15 that it would buy back $4.2bn in shares. That sum, however, is intended to complete an existing $13bn programme announced in 2006. This opens the way for a new buy-back to be announced as soon as the interim results.

    ‘We expect management may announce a fresh $15bn-$20bn [buy-back] programme when results are announced,’ said Andrew Keen, mining analyst at HSBC. ‘We believe at least $8bn is possible in 2011 just to prevent BHP slipping in to a net cash position and a further $10bn required in 2012.’”

    Source: Financial Times, January 31 2011

    Observations:

    BHP Billiton basically has 4 options to use the cash:

    • Return to shareholders through ‘super’-dividends or share buy-backs;
    • Invest, invest, invest. Expand production as much as possible;
    • Attempt more acquisitions. Large acquisitions are unlikely to succeed, but smaller asset acquisitions might work;
    • Keep the cash; wait and see what happens.

    Implications:

    • Major acquisitions in the current field of operations of BHP Billiton will be pretty much impossible because of regulatory issues. The only areas in which acquisitions larger than $5bln might be successful is in precious metals/diamonds/uranium or oil&gas. Many investors won’t be happy with the latter, as it is hard to prove any synergy between operating a mining company and operating an oil&gas company.
    • One of the most important topics for the company where the abundance of cash might be helpful is in establishing a stronger presence in China. The Chinese government is opening up the country for investment to enable access to the more challenging reserves. Partnering with a Chinese firm and actually starting operations in China would create a lot of goodwill for the BHP management with the Chinese rulers.

    ©2011 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

    Alpha agrees to buy Massey for $8.5bn

    January 31, 2011 Comments off

    “Alpha Natural Resources, the third-biggest US coal producer, agreed to buy its rival Massey Energy for about $8.5bn in cash and stock, as the consolidation of the global coal sector continues apace.

    Under the terms of the deal, Massey shareholders receive 1.025 Alpha shares plus $10 cash for each share held, valuing Massey at $69.33 a share, or 21 per cent more than its last trading price on Friday. The $8.5bn valuation includes net debt.

    The combined operations will own more than 110 mines and coal reserves of about 5 billion tons, including one of the world’s largest metallurgical coal reserves. Alpha itself has 60 active mines throughout Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Wyoming.”

    Source: Financial Times, January 29 2011

    Observations:

    • The announcement of the deal does not mention how the companies will handle potential liabilities springing from the safety investigations following April’s disaster in which 29 miners were killed. The deal is subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.
    • The merged entity will be the coal champion of North America, but will still be mainly focused on supplying the domestic industry.

    Implications:

    • Will the agreement between Massey and Alpha lead to other bidders? Most likely not. ArcelorMittal was interested earlier, but the synergies to be achieved by Alpha might be larger and the corporate cultures of the companies are clearly more aligned. An alternative bidder will have to come with a very large premium to prevent Massey’s board from convincing the shareholders of the merits of merging with Alpha.
    • The $8.5bln deal (including net debt of approx. $1.4bln, making net deal value some $7.1bln) is one of the largest across industries in the last months. The deal shows the resurgance of mining M&A to be expected in 2011, with coal and gold being the primary commodities that will trigger M&A.

    ©2011 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

    Caterpillar to Acquire Bucyrus

    November 16, 2010 2 comments

    “Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and Bucyrus International, Inc. (Nasdaq: BUCY) announced today they have entered into an agreement under which Caterpillar will acquire Bucyrus International in a transaction valued at approximately $8.6 billion (including net debt). The acquisition is based on Caterpillar’s key strategic imperative to expand its leadership in the mining equipment industry, and positions Caterpillar to capitalize on the robust long-term outlook for commodities driven by the trend of rapid growth in emerging markets which are improving infrastructure, rapidly developing urban areas and industrializing their economies.”

    Source: Caterpillar Press Release, November 16 2010

    Observations:

    • Bucyrus has a product portfolio including drills; draglines; shovels; excavators; mining trucks; highwall, longwall and room & pillar miners; and belt systems. This portfolio complements the position of Caterpillar, which is mainly strong in loaders and trucks in the mining industry. Sales are roughly equally divided over surface and underground mining equipment.
    • The offer worth $8.6bln is all cash, forcing Caterpillar to increase debt by approx. $5bln and equity by approx. $2bln. However, as Caterpillar is more highly leveraged than Bucyrus, the deal will actually help CAT to reduce leverage.

    Implications:

    • The premium of 32% will have to be justified by synergies that are mainly to be found in consolidation of the supply chain, dealer and service network and in the potential for increased revenues as the Caterpillar gains a stronger position to be the sole-source supplier of mines
    • The closing of the deal is subject to regulatory approvals, which might force Caterpillar to divest some assets in order to prevent a dominant position in several markets. Especially in the area of mining trucks the new company becomes a dominant player, as Bucyrus bought the mining division of Terex early this year.

    ©2010 | Wilfred Visser | BlogCatalog | thebusinessofmining.com

    Capital Structure after the Crisis

    November 15, 2010 Comments off

    The global recession has forced many companies to reevaluate their capital structure. Both the cost of debt and the likelihood of bankruptcy at high debt levels increased, offsetting the benefit or reduced tax expenses at high debt levels. It is therefore no surprise that the largest diversified miners have decreased their gearing. They have benefited from increasing commodity and share prices to reduce debt stake of firm market value to around 33% ((D/E); or 25% in D/(D+E)), in line with the industry’s historical average. A year ago Ernst & Young observed in a report on debt in the mining industry that the gearing had increased to 46%.

     
    Liability comparison
    The liability breakdown based on market value of equity for the 4 major diversified miners shows the strong position of BHP Billiton (Figure 1). The 86% equity in the financing mix, combined with over $12bln in cash, gives the company an enormous financial flexibility. Anglo American struggles to keep up with the other majors at a total of 66% equity (gearing of approx. 50%).

    The Book Value liability comparison does not show significant differences. The relatively large portion of common stock in Vale’s balance sheet mainly indicates that the company issued large amounts of stock more recently than the other companies.

    Figure 1 - Liability structure comparison


     

    Asset comparison

    Figure 2 - Asset comparison

    While gearing of the companies varies quite a bit, the asset base is remarkably similar (Figure 2). The assets of the large miners typically show approx. 67% Plant, Property & Equipment (PP&E). The most obvious variation among the companies is the percentage of “other fixed assets”, which hold the goodwill created by paying a premium in acquisitions of other companies. Rio Tinto’s balance sheet still holds $14bln goodwill (33% of total assets), mainly because of the acquisition of Alcan in 2007. The relatively high percentage for Anglo American is not caused by goodwill but by a high proportion of long term investments in other companies.

    Another important difference is the percentage of cash carried by the various firms. While the diversified miners typically need approx. 2-3% of asset value as operating cash, BHP Billiton holds 14% ($12bln), signaling a pile of excess cash held as a war chest for potential acquisitions. Rio Tinto’s cash at 4% of asset value is a healthy level, but indicates the company does not have much flexibility for acquisitions and/or capital projects in the short run.

     

    Company specifics

    The figures below show the evolution of asset base and capital structure of each of the four miners over the past 4 years.

    BHP Billiton

    BHP Billiton has maintained a stable asset base over the past years, using the large profits to slowly build a war chest for acquisitions. After the failure of the bid for Rio Tinto in 2008 and the potential failure of the bid for PotashCorp of Saskatchewan this year the company will have to reconsider announcing a superdividend or repurchasing shares to give cash back to shareholders.
    Read more…

    Australian Miners Look West for Capital

    November 8, 2010 Comments off

    “After providing a flood of capital when the rest of the world was closing its checkbooks during the financial crisis, China’s mostly state-controlled mining sector is likely to find itself increasingly outgunned in the race for Australian resources, according to bankers to the industry.

    ‘Through the financial crisis, China was the provider of capital of last resort,’ said Alan Young, a managing director at J.P. Morgan in Sydney. ‘What you’re seeing now is that companies have other options.’

    The return of commodities prices to historic highs in recent months has changed the equation, making funding from Asian end-users more of an option than a necessity.”

    Source: Wall Street Journal, November 3 2010

    Observations:

    • Various Australian mining firms have raised money on stock markets (Fortescue, MacArthur) now that investors turn back to markets and interest in mining stocks is increasing. This reduces the need for the mining companies to raise cash by partnering with cash-rich Chinese firms.
    • The increase of the exchange rate of the Australian dollar versus the American dollar and the Chinese Renmimbi further decreases the attractiveness for Chinese firms to invest in Australian mining property.

    Implications:

    • Chinese companies have ongoing interest in expansion abroad. As they will have to compete with other sources of money for western companies they will resort to offering more favorable conditions or to acquiring foreign assets.
    • The increasing competitiveness to act as financer of mining projects strengthens the need for the Chinese mining and metals industry to consolidate; creating less but stronger companies that have the power to make international deals.

    ©2010 | Wilfred Visser | thebusinessofmining.com

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