Posts Tagged ‘scenario planning’

Mining Industry Scenarios 2011-2014

March 11, 2011 1 comment

How could the mining industry develop in the period 2011 to 2014?

The mining industry is facing uncertain times. In response to the World Economic Forum’s ‘Mining & Metals scenarios to 2030’ I developed two short term scenarios for the mining industry. Both scenarios describe a plausible, consistent, potential development of the industry in the next 3 years:



  • In Red Wave, China’s government manages to sustain demand growth, resulting in high commodity prices. At the same time China invests heavily all around the world, forcing other miners to focus on organic growth.
  • In Countercurrent, revaluation of the renminbi and high interest rates in China lead to lower commodity demand. Prices decrease across the board. Miners struggle to maintain positive margins. New project development becomes of secondary importance.

Full transcript of the video can be downloaded here

©2011 | Wilfred Visser |

Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030

March 4, 2011 Comments off

How will the environment for the global mining and metals sector look in 2030?

Source: World Economic Forum, February 2010

Scenario Design:

  • The World Economic Forum described 3 plausible scenarios of the development of the industry up to 2030 with the objective of challenging the mental frameworks of regulators and people in the industry.
  • The scenarios build on the certainty of population growth and overall increasing demand for commodities.
  • The scenarios diverge in the area of 4 critical uncertain developments: geo-economic; geopolitical; economic; and environmental.

Scenario Outcomes:

  • The Green Trade Alliance scenario sees a world divided between the ‘green’ and ‘the rest’. Global trade is compromised by new environmental standards. Sustainability is a key issue for mining companies.
  • The Rebased Globalism scenario sees high growth in a Multipolar World, in which regulation is mainly local. Stakeholders management is a key issue for the mining industry, in which resources are scarce.
  • The Resource Security scenario sees a breakdown of globalism as governments try to secure access to raw materials. Limited trade and substitution of industrial inputs leads to low growth for the mining industry. Government relations are the most important asset in the industry.

©2011 | Wilfred Visser |