Posts Tagged ‘Sur’

Mining Week 36/’12: Anglo and Codelco compromise; Glenstrata in doubt

August 31, 2012 Comments off

Top Stories of the Week:

  • Anglo American and Codelco reach a deal on the Sur Complex
    • Anglo agreed to sell a minority stake of its Chilean Sur Projects to Codelco at a significant discount, but the company receives over $2bn more than Codelco would have to pay according to its disputed buy-in option.
    • Codelco partners with Mitsui in a JV that receives a 24.5% stake of the project.
    • Codelco’s union representative voted against the new deal, announcing action to improve the terms for the Chilean company.
    • Sources: Financial Times 1; Wall Street Journal; Financial Times 2; Financial Times 3
  • Norwegian fund joins Qatar in opposition of Glenstrata merger
    • Analysts speculate about a potential compromise on the price paid for Xstrata by Glencore: Glencore offers 2.8 shares per share of Xstrata, but Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund earlier indicated it would require a 3.25 ratio. In a new statement in which the fund says it will vote against the proposed deal the 3.25x ratio was not reiterated.
    • Norges Bank Investment Management has also build up a significant stake in Xstrata. The Qatari fund could be able to block the merger alone (depending on its current ownership level) or with the help of a few other investors.
    • Sources: Financial Times 1; Wall Street Journal; Financial Times 2
  • Australian politicians struggle with mining ‘boom’ approach
    • Iron benchmark ore prices continue to decrease, loosing more than 50% vs. the peak around $200/wmt early in 2011 and 36% year to date. The profits of the iron ore dependent miners has followed this trend.
    • Royalties and income taxes on mining firms are an important pillar of the Australian budget, built for a large part around the newly introduced Mineral Resource Rent Tax. Several Australian politicians have expressed their concern with the perspective of a significant reduction of tax income. The MRRT alone was planned to bring in over $6bn of government income, but because of the progressive nature of the tax the income will be very small at current price levels.
    • Sources: Wall Street Journal; Financial Times; text

Trends & Implications:

  • Xstrata’s shareholder vote on the proposed merger with Glencore is anything but a done deal. Several large shareholders want Glencore to sweeten the offer of 2.8 shares of Glencore per share of Xstrata. However, the actual share ratio has been hovering around 2.65-2.70 since mid May, indicating that a significant share of the market expects the ratio to drop if the deal does not go on. Xstrata has higher value for Glencore than for current shareholders, but it is unlikely the company will want to pay more than the proposed 2.8x ratio and give all of that additional value to Xstrata’s current shareholders.

2012 | Wilfred Visser |

Mining Week 29/’12: Chilean peace talks

July 15, 2012 Comments off

Top Stories of the Week:

  • Anglo American and Codelco extend talks about Sur
    • Anglo American and Codelco agreed to suspend legal action in the lawsuits filed by both parties in the conflict around ownership of the Anglo Sur projects in Chile until August 24 to have more time to try to settle the dispute out of court.
    • Chilean media reported that a potential solution to the dispute might involve minority shareholder Mitsubishi to give up a small stake to enable Mitsui to build up a stake. Anglo sold 49% of the project at a high valuation after Mitsui and Codelco made agreements about a deal based on Codelco’s option to buy into the project.
    • Sources: Financial Times; Wall Street Journal; Anglo American press release
  • Agnelli heads new mining consortium in Brazil
    • Vale’s former CEO Roger Agnelli will head a new mining venture set up by investment bank BTG. Initial capital of the new venture: B&A Mineração.
    • The new company inherits a stake in a potash project in Brazil and a copper project in Chile and will look into further opportunities in Latin America and Africa.
    • Sources: Wall Street Journal; Financial Times
  • Tinkler continues with Whitehaven bid
    • Whitehaven, one of Australia’s largest coal miners with mines in Queensland, received a buyout proposal by its largest shareholder: Nathan Tinkler.
    • Tinkler already owns 21.6% of the shares and proposes to buy the rest of the shares at a 50% premium to take the company off the stock exchange. Total bid amounts to approx. A$5.2 billion.
    • Sources: Financial Times; The Australian

Trends & Implications:

  • The peace talks between Anglo, Codelco, Mitsui and Mitsubishi underline a trend of the growing importance of alliances and multilateral networks in the industry. As mining projects more and more take place in relatively unstable areas of the world an important mining projects require investments so big that it can hardly be carried by a single company, companies need to build upon the strengths and contacts of other companies and find win-win agreements with governments to successfully develop their projects.
  • B&A Mineracao is the 2nd high-profile mining startup in recent years, after Nathan Rothschild started Vallar 2 years ago. The initial success and quick issues of Vallar’s tie-up with Bumi demonstrated three important lessons for these startups that plan to be big soon: Firstly a powerful financier that can chip in multi-billion investments is needed to gain any importance; secondly a combination with existing producers is the only way in which the growth can be quick; and finally effective ownership and governance arrangements around these alliances are crucial to make the new management successful.

©2012 | Wilfred Visser |